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Nathan's Weather Center

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Nathan's Weather Center

I am Nathan and I am currently pursuing my meteorology degree while I serve in the US Army . I created this weather center on January 1st 2014 .
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Based in Winston Salem, NC Welcome to Nathan's Weather Center! I have always enjoyed studying the weather, and I hope to learn even more through using this page. I hope that I can help you better understand the weather, and I hope that I can help keep you safe. This is a community page about the weather, so I welcome any feedback, but keep in mind that I am not a professional. Please share this p

age and help me to grow and expand so that I can become a better meteorologist! Thank you, and have a great day! Stay safe!
***READ BELOW***

Do you ever wonder what all these crazy weather terms mean? Well, it's been long enough! Below are some down to earth and basic definitions of key weather terms that you need to know! Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado WATCH:
~ One of these are issued when weather conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms or tornadoes. It does not always mean that a storm will absolutely hit your house, but areas around should be aware that it is very possible, and no one is 100% safe. Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado WARNING:
~ One of these should be taken more seriously. If you hear or see this, it means that either in your county, or one nearby; professionals have spotted or experienced a severe thunderstorm. The criteria for a severe thunderstorm are:

- at least 1 inch sized hail.
- winds 58 mph or greater
- or if it produces a tornado (in which the Severe Thunderstorm Warning would then be replaced with a tornado warning.

~ In a Tornado Warning, either the radar has indicated a tornado, or someone has witnessed a funnel cloud. If your area if in the path of the storm, then seek shelter on the lowest level of your home, (preferably a basement) or if that's not possible, then put as many walls between yourself and the outside as possible.

~ In a Tornado EMERGENCY, it means that a violent tornado is expected to hit a populated area. These are rare, (not in 2011!) but they MUST be taken very seriously.

**The same things apply to FLOOD, HURRICANE, TROPICAL STORM, HEAT, WIND, WINTER STORM, and DENSE FOG Warnings, Watches, and Advisories.**

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The DIFFERENCE between ISOLATED and SCATTERED thunderstorms!

*Essentially, ISOLATED and SCATTERED are just terms to describe the amount of your area that will be seeing rain. ISOLATED usually doesn't mean that the storms won't move... that's very rare. These numbers below were taken from the National Weather Service... as you can see, "ISOLATED" refers to only a lower percentage of thunderstorms in your viewing area (the area your local news station covers). Isolated = Less than 15% areal coverage. Widely Scattered = 15-24% areal coverage. Scattered = 25-54% areal coverage. Numerous = 55% or greater areal coverage. Widespread = 55% or greater areal coverage. No qualifying remark = 75% or greater areal coverage.

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That's really the only two most confused things... if I could copy the whole NWS page, I would, but if you have any other confusions, I'm sure this page will help you out! http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pdt/forecast/fireWeatherGlossary.php

*NEW* The 4 scales of weather! Scroll down!

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TORNADOES = Enhanced Fujita Scale:

EF0 ~ 65-85 mph winds. = Light damage. EF1 ~ 86-110 mph winds. = Moderate damage. EF2 ~ 111-135 mph winds. = Significant damage. EF3 ~ 136-165 mph winds. = Severe damage. EF4 ~ 166-200 mph winds. = Devastating damage. EF5 ~ >200 mph winds. = Incredible damage.

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HURRICANES = Saffir-Simpson Scale:

Category 5 ~ 156+ mph winds/18+ ft storm surge. = Catastrophic damage. Category 4 ~ 131-155 mph winds/13-18 ft storm surge. = Extreme damage. Category 3 ~ 111-130 mph winds/9-12 ft storm surge. = Extensive damage. Category 2 ~ 96-110 mph winds/6-8 ft storm surge. = Moderate damage. Category 1 ~ 74-95 mph winds/4-5 ft storm surge. = Minimal damage. Tropical Storm ~ 39-73 mph winds/0-3ft storm surge. = N/A
Tropical Depression ~ 0-38 mph winds/no storm surge. = N/A

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WIND = Beaufort Scale:

Ex: Beaufort #, Description, Wind Speed, Damage.

0, Calm,

01/03/2022

Good Monday morning, everyone!!

Be careful out there in NC!! It’s definitely heavy snow and causing the dynamical cooling effect that is allowing the snow to overcome the ground temps. Heavier banding still working it’s way through, but I could see an easy 2-4 inches along the I-40 corridor North to the Virginia border with more in Virginia for sure.

These pictures are from my parents home in Winston Salem, NC! Hate I missed it but already back down in GA preparing to head back on duty.

Stay safe and God bless!

-Nathan ⚡️

01/02/2022

Good Sunday morning, everyone!! 🌧🌧❄️

Happy 2022!! Been a busy last few months for me and beginning in the next 2 weeks, I’ll be unplugging from social media for 3-4 months of extensive military training. I’m still knocking my college out slowly but surely. This next school I’m going to is the top leadership school I can go to and I’m taking this opportunity pretty seriously. Hope everyone is doing well. Just wanted to give everyone a brief update before my 7 hr drive off of leave

As many know, NC weather is wild! To go from 65° and rainy today to possibly snow tomorrow morning, it is nothing unusual.

This is very complex low pressure system that is a classic type for NC. It is very much a cold air chasing system event. We have plenty of moisture and just not enough cold air. Although the system on the model data over last few days has slowed down a lot to allow for the backend of the moisture to change over to a snow/sleet event

It likely will be a pretty sight to see in the morning hours tomorrow between 7 am and 12 pm for many the Piedmont triad. The ground temps are still relatively warm, but I do believe that a nice dusting to 1-2 inches is possible from regions of the I-40 corridor north.

Chances of higher accumulations as you move further west to the mountains and into Virginia.

Have a wonderful Sunday, God bless, and stay safe as always!!

-Nathan ❄️

08/29/2021

Good Sunday afternoon!!

Hope everyone is having a blessed weekend! Been a busy one for myself constantly getting runs and workouts in training for a big military school to go to beginning of next year.

Here is some images of Hurricane ida currently! She is now making landfall as of 1400. Strong Hurricane force winds of a category 4 hurricane of 150 mph. This is a very devastating situation and thoughts/prayers are with this region as Ida begins to push further inland and the main threats get worse. Storm surge of 7-11 feet is likely in many coastal areas around New Orleans and this will likely be a huge threat coupled with damaging hurricane force winds and rainfall. Ultimately causing widespread long duration power outage events.

For all in this region, stay safe! Be weather aware and keep on pushing. There ultimately will be light at the end of the tunnel/hurricane. Thoughts/prayers!!

-Nathan ⚡️

08/27/2021

Good Friday evening everyone!!

**Hurricane IDA update**

First of all, I hope all are doing well! Staying busy training for another military school and taking full time college courses through Mississippi state in Meteorology online. I just wanted to make this update Hurricane Ida. I know I mainly forecast for the NC/SC region, but I have been blessed to meet friends in the Louisiana region. Please share this post to your friends and family in this area.

Synopsis: Hurricane Ida is currently moving over Western Cuba at a forward speed of 15 mph Northwest and sustained winds of 80 mph. This Hurricane will be undergoing some rapid intensification as it crosses into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This likely will be a very devastating hurricane for the region of Louisiana moving into Sunday afternoon and Monday. Sustained winds of upwards to 140 mph (Category 4).

Where will Ida make Landfall? This is still up in the air. Based on the current data, I would say anywhere from Abbeville/Lafayette to New Orleans will be in cross hair for the direct worst impacts when it comes to flooding and strong hurricane force winds.

Winds: This will be a category upon landfall so winds of 140 mph will be sustained around the eyewall. That means that areas within 100-mile radius around the landfall will have winds of 80-100 mph. Widespread long duration power outages will be very likely in this situation of wind and flooding.

Rainfall: Most of the state will receive 2-3" of rainfall with the bulk of the rainfall down in the eastern side of the state. This is where extreme flooding comes into play for areas like Lafayette and New Orleans and North into the Southwestern side of Mississippi as well.

Storm surge: Big issue going into this will be waves pushing inland as well causing storm surge issues. Waves of 2-4 feet to upwards of 10-15 feet likely as Ida pushes closer and makes landfall

Impact:
*Strong hurricane force winds causing likely widespread power outages
* Lots of rainfall and flooding
*Storm surge causing inland coastal flooding

This obviously is nothing unusual for the state of Louisiana, but it definitely shouldn't be taken lightly as impacts will be possibly life threatening in the areas that get direct worst impacts.

Have any questions, comment below and I’ll attempt to answer them in a timely manner.

Stay weather aware, be safe, and share this with friends/family in this region!

God bless!

-Nathan ⚡️🇺🇸

07/21/2021

Good morning to all!

Been busy lately and with my college courses starting back up soon. Definitely wanted to share this to all. Cool weather fact for the day!

The jet stream is funneling smoke from the wildfires out west into the Eastern seaboard. May be super clear out with no clouds in the sky but it will certainly be hazy from the smoke moving in across the upper levels in the atmosphere. Just a heads up. This will also cause the sunsets and sunrises to look like you are out in the Middle East. Brings back the memories of being out in that desert so it will be a atmospheric sight to see.

Oh by the way that second pic is what the sunrise looks like in super hazy conditions out overseas. The smoke in the atmosphere will cause sunsets and sunrises to look like this in ways.

Have a wonderful blessed Wednesday, God bless, and stay safe as always!

-Nathan ⚡️

07/04/2021

Update on Elsa!! Also a word from me on 4th of July. Love history, country, and sharing my knowledge weather to y’all as I finish my degree in meteorology in the next couple years.

Happy 4th of July to Everyone!! From one country last year to America this year, this flag represents so much to me and will continue to be at the forefront of everything I do! For God, country, and family until the day I am called home to the maker. This country will never be perfect, but there is so much more freedom than other countries I have been in for religious, right to bear, and much more!

This is what John Adams said to his wife about Independence Day! This was written on July 2nd, which is when they gathered to write the Declaration of Independence. It was not finalized until July 4th, 1776.

“It ought to be commemorated as the day of deliverance, by solemn acts of devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other, from this time forward forever more.”

Now to get into the weather, the main impact for the Carolinas will be coming into play Thursday early on going through the day as Tropical storm Elsa brings rainfall and some gusty winds to the Eastern half of the state. Not a lot of rain as she will dying down a lot after making landfall somewhere in Florid based on the current data. Just the start of Hurricane season. Not a huge threat but will certainly bring Florida a good bit of rain and Tropical storm winds.

Overall not too bad. Just be weather aware, stay safe, and God bless!

Have a wonderful 4th of July, enjoy time spent with family, have fun, and be safe!!

-Nathan ⚡️

Have a blessed 4th of July!!

07/03/2021

Center of Hurricane Elsa

07/02/2021

65 degrees…that’s insane

07/01/2021

Thursday morning update: July 1st, 2021

Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on
record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.

Current track is towards Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. Needed to be watched as it creeps closer in the coming days around Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.

The mountainous land masses of the Greater
Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation of tropical storm Elsa. This will play a big role into the intensity forecast of this system.

Have a great Thursday, God bless, and stay safe as always

06/30/2021

A quick update: Soon to be Elsa. Let it go, let it go! Tropical storm never hurt me anyways!

Tropical cyclone 5 has officially developed and this will be named tropical storm Elsa!! The low pressure has developed east of the Antilles and will need to be watched in the coming few days next week for the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the states of SC/NC as well.

Have a great evening!! God bless and stay safe as always!

06/27/2021

Good Sunday evening, everyone!!

June 27th, 2021

I hope everyone is doing well! Been quite awhile since my last post but wanted to inform y’all of a tropical disturbance to the Carolinas incoming over the next 48 hours. Been quite busy over the last few months in the military with training and Army schools. I’m working on my degree in meteorology and soon to be finished in a couple years due to my busy schedule and being deployed last year.

This tropical disturbance will likely reach the status of tropical depression and a storm soon and be named Danny. This will bring winds at the surface of the landfall upwards to 70 mph and gusts a bit higher. Main threats will be flash flooding and some inner coastal flooding. Not a great threat to NC as of the current looks at the latest data, but it is going definitely be rain maker and wind maker towards the SC region .

I’m going try and start back up my forecasts and updates on top of school, military, and everything else because I love it and have a passion at updating y’all on weather.

The images below of intensity model guidance and track guidance on this current tropical disturbance.

Have a wonderful blessed Sunday night, stay safe, and God bless!

-Nathan ⚡️

02/18/2021

Another thing that will add to the power outages and downed trees will be the winds at 20-25 mph throughout the day. In addition to the power outages, it will remain cold through the weekend with lows in the morning at low to mid 20’s and highs in the low to mid 40’s through Monday.

Good news though!! Warming up Tuesday onward with high temps around 60° or higher and lows still a little cool in the low 40’s.

Have a good night, please be safe, and God bless! Probably will be unable to post due to the busyness of the day at airborne school and not having a phone on me. Stay weather aware and prepared!!

-Nathan

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