Grey Value Management, 4500 PGA Boulevard, Ste 304B, West Palm Beach, FL (2026)

05/31/2026

Anybody else remember watching 𝙒𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙩 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙇𝙤𝙪𝙞𝙨 𝙍𝙪𝙠𝙚𝙮𝙨𝙚𝙧?

This clip is from the episode that ran on October 16, 1987 - 3 days before Black Monday, when the the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted 508 points—a staggering 22.6% drop in a single trading session.

Worldwide losses from the sell-off were estimated at US $1.71 trillion.

𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙛𝙞𝙘 𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗶𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗻𝗲-𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗨.𝗦. 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆.

[The clip is about a minute long]

05/30/2026

I just read James Grant's review of Liaquat Ahamed's "1873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World" in the The Wall Street Journal.

Ahamed's “Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World” was a fantastic read.

I'm willing to bet "1873" will be as well.

I just pre-ordered it on Amazon - the Kindle version is only $16.99 (see below).

05/25/2026

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙡 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀

Bond investors may be logically worried about rising prices triggered by the Iran war, etc., but real yields - which strip out inflation - indicate that they are more concerned with other factors, including large public debt burdens, fallout from the AI investment boom, etc.

One important reason it matters if the latter have become the primary driver of longer-term borrowing costs:

𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙞𝙛 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘀, 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗲𝘀.

Subtracting inflation-adjusted yields from nominal rates leaves real yields, arguably a more accurate measure of borrowing costs.

Per the figures below, 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗚𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆.

It follows that even if the Strait of Hormuz is eventually opened, long-term rates could find themselves stranded at elevated levels.

For the full details, read the Bloomberg by Matthew Burgess and Masaki Kondo:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-24/bond-strategists-warn-yields-to-stay-high-even-if-iran-war-ends?sref=1lDnBweI

05/21/2026

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽...

According to BofA, asset allocators boosted their stock exposure to a net 50% overweight in May, from 13% last month.

The S&P 500 Index hit its latest record on May 14.

𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗝𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮.

That's the top chart.

Note the bottom chart - the current Shiller PE Ratio (aka, the CAPE Ratio).

The BofA global survey was conducted May 8-14, and canvassed 170 participants with $461 BN in assets.

Much of the gains have been concentrated in chipmakers, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index almost 50% higher since the end of March.

A net 20% of American investors surveyed said they were overweight US equities, compared to a net 22% who were underweight before the war.

That's one of the sharpest rotations out of Europe and into the US on record in data going back to 1999.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰...

Stats from this fine article by Levin Stamm: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-19/fund-managers-boost-stock-allocations-by-a-record-in-bofa-poll?sref=1lDnBweI

05/19/2026

𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗟𝗜𝗩 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗳 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄 (𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗶𝘁)... 𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙙.

Someone had to say it.

05/19/2026

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗲?

The S&P 500 Index has surged about 16% from its March low, supported by robust earnings, corporate buybacks and heavy buying from retail investors.

But the fundamentals are catalyzing froth, and what happens when the flows reverse course?

While retail and institutional investors have piled into stocks, the market looks significantly more crowded than it did just six weeks ago.

Just 27% of the benchmark’s constituents have outperformed the index over the past 30 trading days.

And higher long-end rates are beginning to create competition for equities again.

“𝗣𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀, 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀, 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗘𝗧𝗙 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝘆 𝘃𝘂𝗹𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝘂𝗻𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗳 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺 𝗯𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹.”

Read the full article by Michael Msika and Natalia Kniazhevich here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-18/citadel-securities-rubner-sees-risk-of-flow-unwind-in-us-stocks?sref=1lDnBweI

05/09/2026

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗦 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿

The current market rally has many contributing factors. But one that is likely underappreciated is the massive spike in call option purchasing.

As shown below, trading in S&P 500 call options just hit an all-time high. The prior peaks don't even come close.

For every call option purchased the seller has to hedge their risk by buying the underlying shares - which in turn drives stock prices higher, which only encourages more speculative call option buying, etc.

It's a self-reinforcing phenomenon that is currently operating at warp speed. The animal spirits stalking the market are foaming at the mouth.

Caveat Emptor.

Hedge Fund Group (HFG)

05/07/2026

𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘿𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙡 𝙞𝙣 𝘿𝙚𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚

Miles Surrey really nails the current state of journalism in his article about 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘭 𝘞𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘗𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘢 2.

Less about fashion or even fashion journalism, the film portrays the crisis in legacy media, including the collapse of revenue and distribution models, and the influence of billionaire owners on editorial direction, raises questions about who controls journalistic institutions and the future of journalism.

As he writes, "the sequel doesn’t just register the decline, it underscores how any response to it in the real world begins inside a narrowed set of possibilities — one in which the ultimate price is the loss of editorial judgment."

Give it a read - it's very good: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/AYQPWvq-ZBU/miles-surrey?sref=1lDnBweI

05/01/2026

𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸

Bank regulators are now recommending that banks need 6% less capital to protect against losses.

Just 3 years ago, regulators were suggesting that the biggest banks needed about 19% more.

The new proposal would allow the largest banks to use one method to calculate the risk of their assets instead of the current two. It would also loosen other requirements such as leverage ratios and capital surcharges.

The key issue with these measures is that they're arguably unlikely to accomplish their primary goal: for banks to make more loans to Main Street.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲: 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠𝙞𝙚𝙧.

And at a time when market risk levels certainly aren't declining.

For more details, read this Bloomberg News article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-01/bank-capital-proposals-put-financial-system-at-higher-risk?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=1lDnBweI

04/28/2026

𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗮 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘁, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘁, 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗳𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗿𝘆.

That's Nir Kaissar's take in his recent Bloomberg article (link below). As he writes...

For investors of a certain age, Middle East wars conjure memories of 1970s-style oil embargos and ensuing inflation, recession and bear markets.

But 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆.

𝗖𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗽𝘂𝘁, 𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟮%, 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗮 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟵.

Of that, only a fifth transited through the now contested Strait of Hormuz.

And Gulf Arab states will look to reestablish pipelines moving oil north through the Mediterranean, allowing them to bypass the strait in coming years.

𝗔𝗱𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟯-𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟰 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗱𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟵-𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟬, 𝗮 𝗳𝗮𝗿 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗷𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝟰𝟬% 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝗿.

In addition, oil futures are in steep backwardation, meaning that the difference between the price today and the market’s expected price several months out is larger than usual.

The market is anticipating a significant decline, closer to $70 a barrel by early next year, despite the absence of any tangible evidence that this conflict is near an end.

Read Nir's piece - it's very good:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-27/us-stocks-will-keep-ignoring-the-iran-war?srnd=phx-opinion&sref=1lDnBweI

Grey Value Management

05/31/2026

05/30/2026

05/25/2026

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