11/09/2026
THE NUMBERS SUGGEST A TURN
The slowdown narrative has dominated the luxury-watch conversation.
The latest results point to something more nuanced: momentum is improving.
But the recovery is far from uniform.
LVMH
LVMH Watches & Jewelry recorded 9% organic growth in H1 2026, accelerating to 11% in Q2.
It was LVMH’s fastest-growing business group on an organic basis during the half.
But Watches & Jewelry includes major jewellery businesses such as Tiffany & Co. and Bvlgari.
Strong numbers. Not a pure watch-market indicator.
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RICHEMONT
Richemont reported 20% sales growth at constant exchange rates in Q1 FY27.
Its Specialist Watchmakers division grew 8%, while Jewellery Maisons advanced 24%.
The headline is impressive.
What sits behind it matters even more.
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SWATCH GROUP
Swatch Group reported 8.5% sales growth at constant exchange rates in H1 2026.
At current exchange rates, growth was just 2%.
Watches & Jewelry, excluding Production, advanced 9.5% at constant rates.
Same business. Very different headline once currencies enter the equation.
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THE BROADER MARKET IS TURNING TOO
Swiss watch exports were still down 0.7% in H1 2026.
Then July exports rose 9.6% year on year, pushing the first seven months of 2026 to +0.9%.
That strengthens the recovery signal.
But one strong stretch does not yet make a full-cycle recovery.
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THE RECOVERY IS SELECTIVE
Performance continues to diverge by group, maison, geography, price segment and product line.
And several of the industry’s most important players — including Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet — are privately held and are not captured by these listed-group results.
The signal is positive.
The market is still uneven.
THE MARKET ISN’T ONE NUMBER
Corporate sales are not exports.
Constant-currency growth is not reported growth.
Group performance is not maison performance.
And one strong quarter is not an entire market cycle.
To understand the watch market, the numbers have to be read together.
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